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Economic Outlook

The Socio-Economic Outlook and other periodic reports address the longer- term prospects for Edmonton's economy as well as key demographic and social issues which the City will experience in the coming years.

Economic Forecast: Edmonton Indicators 2010-2020

June 13, 2011

Indicators are from the Fall 2010 forecast produced using the Edmonton Econometric Model. An update based on 2011 will be released shortly. See “Related Documents” at right for City of Edmonton and Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area forecasts.

Steady Recovery

Edmonton staged an impressive recovery in 2010, building on relative economic stability not experienced in many areas. In just 18 months, an economy that had shrunk almost 4% due to worldwide recession gained an estimated 3.2% in Gross Domestic Product. As the capital of a province with abundant natural resources and a strong knowledge economy, this city has what it takes to meet the challenges posed by a volatile global economy.

April, 2011

Coming as it did on the heels of a nearly decade-long boom, the economic turmoil of 2008-2009 had a silver lining. The regional economy was able to refocus while reining in price escalation through lower construction and labour costs.

Now, Edmonton’s recovery is outpacing that of Alberta, which is vying with Saskatchewan for top spot among Canadian provinces. Our inflation rate of about 1.0% at year end remains well below the national average of 2.5%.

Edmonton’s job creation rate is also outpacing the province. The labour force grew by 1.0% in 2010, employment rose 2.3% and the number of unemployed fell 17%. Our jobless rate stood at 5.8% in December 2010, down from nearly 8% at recession’s bottom.

Businesses and residents continue to benefit from one of North America’s most competitive corporate tax environments. A 2009 Conference Board of Canada scorecard rated Edmonton third in Canada for economic prosperity. In 2010, Conference Board estimates put our per capita personal income 20% higher than the Canadian average. The economic resilience is reflected in the City of Edmonton’s AA (high) credit rating, not exceeded by any other city in Canada.

It’s no surprise that our region attracts newcomers from across Canada and around the world. Statistics Canada tallies Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area population at 1,176,300, up 1.7% from 2009. Many come early in their career, joining a relatively young, highly skilled population that is fast-tracking Edmonton to the leading edge of a knowledge-based economy.

Edmonton is among North America’s best places to invest in real estate according to the Real Estate Investment Network. Residential property sales dropped from 19,016 to 16,241 in 2010, yet the average house price rose $8,544, ending the year at $328,936.    

The Edmonton region has $30 billion in recently completed, planned or underway capital projects, including a new $5-billion oil sands upgrader set for construction to start in 2011. The City of Edmonton is a major contributor with an estimated $3 billion in infrastructure projects budgeted for 2010 and 2011.

Looking ahead

Although a sluggish U.S. economy could constrain export opportunities nationally, regionally and locally, robust oil prices and strength in sectors such as financial services, health care, technology and education should help keep the city’s economic growth above the national average.

Nearly 4% growth is expected for Edmonton in 2011. This is well above the 2.3% gain predicted for Canada by the International Monetary Fund and supports an affordable and sustainable pace of development as major investment projects are stretched over a longer time horizon. Across Alberta, the Conference Board of Canada anticipates 2.8% growth in 2011 and 4.1% in 2012.

Few economies have prospects as bright as northern Alberta, at the geographic core of Canada’s economic future. As the research and industrial workhorse of the province, Edmonton stands tall as one of Canada’s most dynamic and prosperous urban centres.

For more information:

John Rose